| 论文题目 | Can system dynamics explain long-term hydrological behaviors? The role of endogenous linking structure |
| 作 者 | 周心尧; 盛祝平; Manevski, K; Zhao, RT; Zhang, QZ; 杨艳敏; 韩淑敏; Liu, JH; 杨永辉; |
| 发表年度 | 2025 |
| 刊物名称 | HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES |
| 卷、期、页码 | 29; 1; 159-177 |
| 影响因子 | |
| 论文摘要 | Hydrological models with conceptual tipping bucket and process-based evapotranspiration formulations are the most common tools in hydrology. However, these models consistently fail to replicate long-term and slow dynamics of a hydrological system, indicating the need for model augmentation and a shift in formulation approach. This study employed an entirely different approach - system dynamics - towards more realistic replication of the observed slow hydrological behaviors at inter-annual and inter-decadal scales. Using the headwaters of Baiyang Lake in China as a case study, the endogenous linking structure of the hydrological system was gradually unraveled from 1982 to 2015 through wavelet analysis, Granger's causality test, and a system dynamics model. The wavelet analysis and Granger's causality test identified a negatively correlated and bidirectional causal relationship between actual evapotranspiration and catchment water storage change across distinct climatic periodicities, and the system dynamics approach suggested a combined structure of a vegetation reinforcing feedback and a soil water-vegetation balancing feedback in the hydrological system. The system dynamics' structure successfully captured the slow hydrological behaviors under both natural and human-intervention scenarios, demonstrating a self-sustained oscillation arising within the system's boundary. Our results showed that the interaction between the vegetation structure and the soil-bound water dominates the hydrological process at an inter-annual scale, while the interaction between the climatic oscillation and the soil-water-holding capacity dominates the hydrological process at an inter-decadal scale. Conventional hydrological models, which typically employ physiological-based evapotranspiration formulations and assume invariable soil characteristics, ignore vegetation structure change at the inter-annual scale and soil-water-holding capacity change at the inter-decadal scale, leading to failure in predicting the observed long-term hydrological behaviors. The system dynamics model is in its early stage with applications primarily confined to water-stressed regions and long-term scales. However, the novel insights proposed in our study, including the different hierarchies corresponding to distinct mechanisms and timescales and the endogenous linking structure among stocks being a more important driver of the hydrological behaviors, offer potential solutions for better understanding a hydrological system and guidelines for improving the configuration and performance of conventional hydrological models. |
| 全文链接 | http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-29-159-2025 |
| 附件地址 |
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中国科学院遗传与发育生物学研究所农业资源研究中心 京ICP备05002857号-1 地址：河北省石家庄市槐中路286号地理位置与乘车路线 邮编：050022 电话：0311-85814521传真：0311-85815093； Email:zhc@sjziam.ac.cn |
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